Sunday, January 27, 2008

Some criticism for everyone in the stock markets !!!

So people have lost again everything what they had and as always our markets are there to be blamed.Thats the easy way out for everyone and i am even witnessing slogans of quiting markets in some of the active stock communities.Guys please admit that its because of ur mistakes that u have lost.Were u not made aware that severe price erosions can be on the cards?were you not told that investing in companies which only exists on paper would always acts as timebombs?I am no one to blow my own trumphet but its the fact.Money making was the easiest thing and stock markets were child acts for that ,isnt it?Pan walas,dabba walas even highly qualified meritorious guys opted for stock markets instead of their profesions,business:Why?Because stock markets can only go one way and thats northwards.


Whats most astonishing is,people wre banking on whtver they felt,on question of why the scrip was bot it was answered like,"Charts are promising,Promoters are holding above 90% stake in the company,its going to be a multibagger,Mere sasur ne kaha hain ki ismey reliance ka koi histedar nibesh karne wala hain(my father in law recomended it coz some reliance partners or reliance guys are going to invest in it) etc.Ths is so weird,creepy bullshit stufs that has been going on on the markets and it ended very recently as u all are well aware.Folks u are only responsible for ur losses.I am not blaming one who invested in quality stocks but my hatration is with the persons who bot 3rd class stocks at ridiculious prices.Anyway wont sound much to make ur wounds cut more but my solace are there for all of u.Try to be a bit disciplined,always be aware of what u are buying,never trade if u havent got that mentality and always make ur mindset about what you are going to do.

Remember its a lesson for u ,market would again stabelize but memories would be there.Experience is superior to precipt and with the present stuffs it cant be better.Relax folks,chill,ur day wud again come and we all will be smiling,partnering u on ur smiles.

Outlook for indian stock markets


Market outlook:-

Each Time the Sensex corrects from highs,some common questions haunts retail investors:
"Are we going to correct more?Is it the rite time to buy? Is the market going to make another top after the correction just like every other correction happened in the past?" If investors get both aspects — the framework of this bull run and its longevity backed by high conviction levels — right, it will be easier to retain equity exposure amidst high volatility. While in the long term, the market is driven by factors like economic growth, earnings, valuations, economic health etc, in the short term, only two factors work — liquidity and sentiment.India is among the 10 countries in the world to have a trillion-dollar GDP and m-cap simultaneously. It is the 14th largest country globally in terms of m-cap and 12th largest economy in terms of GDP. It is also the fourth largest market in Asia (after Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai), and India's GDP growth rate (over 9%) is the second-fastest globally.The country's per capita income has risen over 8% in the past 2-3 years.Domestic entrepreneurs are ready to play the global game with the mindset of creating Indian MNCs. These factors signify that India has reached global scale and size. The economy is on its way to becoming an economic super power. There will be some speed bumps along the way, but there won't be any U-turns.

As is the case globally, when economies undergo this transformation, the equity asset class creates wealth in the economy and outperforms most asset classes.India will witness the same phenomenon; equities will outperform most asset classes over 3-5 years. From a macro perspective, India may look a bit expensive, but taking into account the growth profile and possibility of value unlocking from balance sheets, it is bound to remain expensive.The idea is to take exposure in the right sectors and stocks.Greed- and fear-driven sentiments cause market movements in the short term. What happened in February/ March '07 reflected fear among market participants. As inflationary pressures started to cool off, the fear started receding, backed by strong corporate earnings and domestic and international inflows. Though the market performed well in April/May '07, there is a lot of scepticism.

Technically, market bottoms are an outcome of panic-selling as large buying dries out, while tops are made when investors feel left out and start buying to gain market exposure without paying attention to price — a phenomenon which may be termed 'panic buying'.But now we are coming out of the greed stage and moving towards the panic selling stage.How long it will last is a function of liquidity in the short term, global markets and news flows. There can be some bounceback before another correction sets in. Macro level concerns like the rupee's appreciation, interest rate pressures, US recessions,Fii selling will remain and may create an overhang.At the same time, there's enough appetite for corrections to buy Indian paper.The Sensex may remain in the 18300-20500 range in these jan-april quarter.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Caution and Cash are good things to have !!!

Sensex Technical view :

There is a whole lot of support around the 19500 zone. The different trendlines and channel come in a zone of 19500 + or - 250 points . Possibly the bottom could be near about that and a gap down fall 2 days back suggests it can be filled up in days to come. As we had advised some time back about a whole article on portfolio , mid caps etc to generate cash. The strategy continues to be same be cautious and hold the cash to keep u flexible to utilize opportunities possible.


Some thoughts :
Why do small investors get problems in investing....

Some lines :
Intra - Day trading stocks become investments when they go down .

Short term dabba stocks are never booked partially also when they double or triple in greed of more. These remain in the portfolio in hopes of seeing previous highs.

Investment stocks are booked on 20% gains as movements are slow and steady .....later they rue about the fact i had that stock at such a low price....

All in all there are many mistakes all of us make but there is one thing we shud take care as one cant afford do the same mistakes again ..........

Booking losses is what people are afraid of .....Businesses are bound to have risks and losses....So do review ur strategies as there is a long way for the markets in India ... Improvize , Optimize with every mistake as markets can create wealth for u only if u want to !!!

Sayaji hotels:-The next big star in the hotel industry

Scrip scan:-Sayaji hotels

Code:-523710

cmp:-112

Introduction:-

Booming tourism industry and higher business travel has led to insufficient rooms in indian hotel industry. As a result,most hotels in all categories are enjoying best ever occupancy as well as arpu.Hotel industry is expected to do much better for next 2-3 years.

In such a scenario, sayaji hotels appears a good pick.Promoted by dhanani family of indore, company has hotels in baroda and indore.In fact,indore property enjoys dominant position in indore city with its central location.Sayaji faces very little competition in indore.Indore hotel offers full marriage package which is very popular and big money spinner for the company.

Future prospects:
Company has been performing exceedingly well.It is estimated that sayaji should earn revenue of rs. 80 crs. And net profit of rs. 7 crs for fy08. The company has set up a 350 room hotel in pune.Company is also planning to set up another hotel in one of the major prime cities. These 2 projects will catapult sayaji into bigger league.
The company has up chain of restaurants called 'kabab ville'.These restaurants offer high quality speciality food at reasonable prices.

Sayaji Hotels:-
The company is planning to capitalise the hospitality boom by opening 100 Barbeque Nation restaurants in the next 3 years.

Conclusion:-
The scrip is presently quoting at 112 rs and has been moving up up after a long gap of time.Though valuations are not dirt cheap but numbers should speak in the coming quarters.Prospects looks good.Management is ambitious and they are doing all the rite things needed to make a name for themselves

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Discipline saves u from the pain and unexpected.....


Hope people took caution well to cut down their leverage , margin and penny positions . Whole lot of pennies and small stocks have taken a good beating after that and can take some more in coming days.Discipline is the word being mentioned in the last few days because there is quick money in certain pennies but u need to be swift enough to conserve it and optimism can take a good part of it back . If u want to stay in for longer run with stability be disciplined in this serious business.

Certain sayings :
  • When in doubt stay out.
  • Its not necessary to trade everyday.
  • If you are not in the market all you can lose is an opportunity.
  • More trading doesnt imply more money :)

Stocks review :

Sobha developers moved up 10% in the day after taking a beating with the market. Those who have booked partial quantity can hold. Compact does 4 upper freeze and bhuruka did lowers. Avoid weird ideas for some times book whether its profit or losses. HPCL at 338 to 320 and BPCL at 435 or below looks good for accumulation for patient players.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Remember the following points when investing in the market

Remember the following points when investing in the market:-

1)Sentiments change overnight as people are emotional.

2)If analysis really workd all the time market would have become very boring.They are interesting because we cannot predict human behaviour.

3)When you get information on a stock find out if market already knows it.Know your level ofinformation ladder

4)Life is never fair.You may find incompetent people being highly successful.Dont feel bad,they are reaping the rewards of their past karma,lolz……

5)You cannot get investment opportunities everyday.5-6 of them in a quarter would be great.

6)Patience is always rewarded.The law of firm is applicable in walks of life.

7)Control your emotions.Do not follow the herd blindly.

8)You never miss the buss in the markets.If you have the money opportunities would always come.Preserve your money and don't forget "cash is the king"

9)Bear markets offer better investment opportunities than bull markets.

10)Avoid margin trading.You are only enriching your broker.Ask your margin trading friends how they are treated in the present market situation.

11)Derivatines are good hedging instruments.Unfortunately they are used as speculative instruments.They only enrich the intermediary at the expense of the investor.Avoid them.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

ITL Industry:-The undervalued smallcap for your portfolio

Scripscan=ITL Industry

BSE code:522183

CMP=63

Target=96

Return expected:52%+

Duration=5-7 months.

Introduction-
ITL is an established leading metal cutting solution provider offering wide range of machines,tools and cuting lubricants.ITL has been the pioneer in introducing India;s first double column type metal cutting machinein the year 1990 and since then, ITL has supplied more than 2000 machines across the country and global markets.

ITL has started designing and manufacturing of complete turnkey projects as well as equipments for production of tube and pipes which includes tubes mills, draw benches,straightning machines etc, Which are neccesary for production of ERW, Seamless pipes and stainless pipes.ITL developed and manufactured India's first high speed CNC circular sawing machines and the same has been well accepted by most of the engineering industries.It is a perfect solution for cutting requirements of most of the automotive component manufactures and its expected that in times to come, they will shift from conventional cutting machines to circular sawing machines because of their higher productivity and high degree of automotion along with quality cuts.

For FY07, Company had acheived sales of 22 CRS with a NP of 1.32crs. On equity of 3.30 CRS., EPS stood at 4.ITL's profits were not high because steel prices had gone up substantially over last 2 years.The company had undertaken export orders based on the then prevailing steel prices at low margins to enter the export market. With surge in steel prices, Its margins were effected.Now the company has been succesful in putting price escalation clause into its contracts resulting in better margins.

Future Prospects-

The engineetring industry in India is on an upswing on the back of huge demand from the contruction,infrastructure and capital goods sector. This has resulted in an increase in the demand for metal cutting machines.

ITL is well placed to take advantage ofthis oppurtunity as its a leader in high speed sawing technology and is in the process of establishing itself in the domestic and global markets as an innovative and reliable "Cutting solution provider".It would be prudent to note that there are 9 Engineering,2 Polytechnic and 3 ITI colleges at Indore, Thereby giving the company a locational advantage to attract new talent.

Wide Product Range:
Itl has a wide product range in metal cutting solutions.The company offers 60 different models of brandsaw machines ranging from 100 MM TO 1,500 MM cutting capacity with Manual, Semi Automatic, Automatic and fourth generation CNC machines. On the back of its technical tie up with a German company ,ITL manufactures 3 models of Kato Sawing machines with cutting capacities of 250 MM and 400 MM diameter in India as per KLasto technology.

Further, ITL is the hub fortube technology for leading manufactures.With technical know-how from varios Mnc, Itl offers state of art equipment crafted by a highly experienced technical team.Its tube mills have acapacity of making 20 inch diameter tubes/pipes.

All this makes ITL a Pioneer in cutting technology and also places it at an advantage over it peers,Thus ITL is best positioned to capitalize on the demand arising from the tube and pipe manufacturing sector.

The company has represntatives in U.S.A. and Germany, which helps it to maintain relationship with its exisiting customers and also acquire new customers.It is beleived that ITL has appointed dealers in some of european as well as african countries to capture a larger pie of the export market.It completed its modernisation and expansion project with a capex of Rs.2.5 cr. and has also acquired land in the SEZ in Pithampur for meeting global opportunities.Notably,its orders in hand is at a historic high with more than Rs.20 crs. due to the good demand for tube & pipe manufacturing machines along with its recently launched circular saw machine.

For H1FY08, ITL has acheived sales of rs 15.5 CRS. and the PAT stands at 1.05 lakhs.Due to nature of its business,Company reports higher performance in H2. ITL IS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE SALES OF RS. 40-42 CRS. AND NP OF RS. 2.65 CRS. WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO EPS OF 8.

The company has got a good dividend payout ratio and over the last 6 years it has consistently rewarded the shareholders with rich dividends.With the company expected to come out with much higher profits the company may just put a hike in its dividend ratio.

ITL is available at extremly low valuations.Considering high valuations enjoyed by engineering companies these days.The scrips like Gei Hamon, Petron eng, International Combustion E.t.c. are quoting at PE ratio of 12-25 times.With growth in size, ITL IS BOUND TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER VALUATIONS.The stock is currently traded at 17x FY2007 earnings.I strongly recommend BUY on the stock with target price of Rs 96 for the stock,at 12x FY2008E earnings (EPS Rs 8x12).

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Garnet construction:-High risk high gain bet


High risk-return bet:-Only go for it if you have got a very high risk apetite.

SCRIPSCAN:Garnet construction

Cmp:91

BSE code:-526727

Present turnover=35crs(2007)
Expected turnover in 08=125crsExpected turnover in 09=240crs

Introduction=

Garnet Construction Limited (GCL is engaged in the business of Industrial and residential construction.The company promoted by Kishan Kumar Kedia and Arun Kumar Kedia has has already acquired about 280 acre of land at Express Highway near Panvel in Navi Mumbai for Residential and Industrial project, which will require a total of 400 acre.Presently the company is involved in a 117 bunglows project at Lonavala.Now what has interested me to recomend the company is the fact that it is having a huge landbank of over 400 acres with company having a mere equity capital of 8crs.With projected revenues of 125cr in 08 its sure to give a huge boost to its earnings and i expect a EPS of around 16 rs.The scrip at rs 90 quotes just a odd 5.5 times its 1 year forward exrnings.With real estate and deleloping companies attracting huge valuation garnet may well continue its journey in the northwards.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Interworld Digital:-The 2rs penny stock with multibagger potential

Scripscan - Interworld Digital Ltd

Code-532072

CMP-2 (FV-1)

Target-4

Duration-12 months.

Introduction-

Interworld Digital is in the business of development of end-to-end distribution technology and support services for the delivery of digital cinema to theaters worldwide.It provides a complete range of capabilities to serve the emerging digital distribution needs for the motion picture industry based on an open standard that covers all of the stages for taking a movie from a studio master to a theater's digital projection system. This includes compressing, encrypting, and transferring the master onto a deliverable media, delivering the content to the theater-either by physical media or via satellite-for storage scheduling and playback.


Positives of Digital cinema -

One of the major revenue-streams for D-Cinema can be in the form of advertisements.It is expensive to copy advertisements to 35mm, and the distribution costs are high. This will limit the market to only large national/international advertisers. By using digital format, it is only necessary to hand in a disc, or down load the content. Distribution can take place centrally from a hub, which will control the running of each individual advertisement for each cinema through a large server, or it can be done by each individual cinema. The reduced cost of distribution, will reduce the advertising costs, and make cinema advertisement more competitive against other media.

Apart from advertising potentially Interworld Digital will enable new revenue opportunities for theater owners by extending their revenue base to include corporate presentations, live events, large-scale training and seminars, and multi-location interactive conferences. But the biggest advantage will come for distribution. Making and distributing copies is a lot easier with digital files than with physical film. Digital copies of a movie save millions by eliminating the cost of creating 100 or 1,000 odd movie prints. A film print can cost up to Rs 600,00 per print so making 100 prints or for a wide-release movie can cost up to Rs 60 lakh.By distributing them electronically,the cost savings on the distribution to the theater and back alone saves millions of rupees.Apart from this, D-Cinema will be of great benefit to B and C cities where 70% movies are of poor quality (B-grade, C Grade and X movies) or are movies that were released a couple of years back. With D-Cinema, they will able to view A-grade movies simultaneously along with their counterparts in cities.

Negatives -

On the downside, the upfront costs for converting theaters to digital are high: up to $150,000. Theatres may be reluctant to switch without a cost-sharing arrangement with distributors.

Prospect -
Interworld Digital Ltd is in the market with the first digital movies that will be transmitted to theatres through satellite. In the first phase, Interworld Digital plans to digitise 50 theatres across the country.Movies transported in encoded format, which would have the highest quality of print, would be shown in these theatres. Digitising of movies would render piracy practically impossible for two reasons. One, the quality of the pirated version would be pathetic. And two, a watermark on the theatre screen would show the place and date on which the pirated copy was made.One big gain for producers would be that they would save huge amounts on prints as each print costs about Rs 8000 and they need to make scores of prints to distribute across the country and abroad.

Outlook-
To achieve its object of setting up fully featured Digital Cinema Model, the Company has engaged famous film Director, Mr. Partho Ghosh, for producing and directing various feature film under consideration and M/s Cyberlogy (India) Pvt. Ltd. for setting up a Network Operating Centre in Mumbai for the Company and for also arranging various other activities.

As the Indian economy grows and merges further with the global economy, the focus of demand for IT and entertainment services will shift from large deals signed by the large enterprises to increasing number of mid-size and small enterprises signing IT and entertainment services which is expected to be the next phase of growth in the Indian IT and entertainment services market.

Conclusion-

Digital technology is already taking over a big chunk of the home entertainment market. Movies might not be able to escape the digital onslaught for long. While digital cinema is yet to take off in a big way in India, it is surely showing prospects of cinema without reels.For viewers, digital projection offers crisp pictures that don't fade or scratch, no matter how many times they are shown. Create the content once and deliver to millions without any generational loss or image degradation.

"Interworld looks to have a bright future ahead.Its quoting at a mere 2rs and upsides can be huge from these level.The promoters too realising the huge potential has been increasing their stakes in the counter.Digital cinema is set to be the next boom for sure and the company having the first mover advantage deserves a better valuation.Interworld basically is following the business model of a Belgium-based company called EVS Belgium.In the US,Dolby Digital is the leader in this industry segment.Being a 2rs counter there is not much to loose but chances are always there that the scrip may just turn out to be the next multibagger."So watch out for it".